4 Key Indicators for Measuring Stock Market Winners
We'd all like to know the secrets for buying winning stocks. Here's the first one: there is no secret. No one formula and certainly no one data point is THE answer to finding the next hot stock. That isn't how investing works. But there are certain numbers that will help increase the odds of finding a stock that may go up. Here are some that will help.
In real estate, the three most important words are location, location, location. In successful stock investing, they are earnings, earnings, earnings. Ultimately, all investing comes down to earnings. Earnings are what investors own. They contribute to Book Value (see below). They are the reason anyone invests in a stock: to reap the future rewards of a successful company. Earnings growth is what an investor wants to see. The stronger the better. Companies increasing earnings by more than 10% each year for the last three years have been exceptional as the economy has diminished. Look for companies that can grow earnings well above average no matter what the economy does.
The P/E Ratio. Probably the most quoted valuation of a stock. It stands for Price to Earnings ratio. The price is where the stock is selling right now. The earnings are from the previous 12 months. When you divide the price by the earnings, it gives investors an idea of how investors feel about a stock. A very high P/E (above 25) says that investors think growth will be strong, that earnings will continue to improve at a rapid rate. That's why investors are willing to pay more for the stock. A low P/E ratio (below 10) suggests investors don't believe there's much expected growth in earnings. They don't see a catalyst for earnings to improve. They're not willing to pay very much for the stock. Sometimes a low P/E stock will surprise with good earnings growth. Then that stock will take off. Sometimes a high P/E stock will disappoint, deliver earnings below analysts' expectations. That stock will drop faster than eagles on a trout pond. What you're looking for is a stock that has strong earnings growth with a low P/E.
Revenues. Revenues are sales. The higher they go, the better chance earnings will also. Look for companies with better than average growth in sales, especially ones that increase sales by selling more of what they make, not by buying other companies and adding their sales to report bigger numbers. Internal growth of revenues is the best. However, if earnings are not increasing as quickly or more so than sales (in terms of percentages) watch out. It means more sales are taking more resources and are actually hurting earnings. Find companies with ever increasing sales but even higher growth (in percentages) in earnings.
Book Value. This isn't a ratio. It's an absolute number that tells investors what a company would be worth if it stopped doing business. In other words, if all the debt were paid off, how much would be left to distribute to shareholders. Benjamin Graham, the father of fundamental investing and mentor to the greatest stock investor ever, Warren Buffett, liked to find stocks that had a price that was less than 50% of Book Value. In other words, he was buying $1 bills with 50 cents.
Many stocks sell for less than Book Value because investors think there will be huge losses in the future and therefore Book Value will decrease considerably, maybe go negative. Shrewd investors look for stocks with growth in earnings and revenues that are selling below Book Value. That way, they know Book Value will increase over time, and their investments should be worth more.
Be aware that Book Value is not always precise. For example, if a company owns a building and the value is going higher (which most aren't right now), then the company's accounting will not reflect the higher value of the property. So Book Value can't always be taken as perfect, but it's a good starting point to find cheap or expensive stocks.
Is this the easy, winning formula for finding stocks? Of course not. But these four numbers will make your investigations a lot shorter. By focusing on finding the winners with these four attributes, you'll increase your chances of buying better stocks.
- Howard's blog
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